Complexities Abound in Whirligig Politics

While the IPL spot-fixing and betting scams continue to plague the cricket scene with the exposure of more figures in the extravaganza (witness Rajasthan Royals co-owner Raj Kundra’s predicament following his alleged confession to the police of betting that resulted in his suspension by the BCCI), fast-moving political developments have lately cast their long shadow over the future of the BJP and the NDA it leads.

As was forecast in these columns last week—that the outcome of the last round of by-elections, especially those held in Gujarat where the ruling BJP won all the seats (in both the Assembly and Parliament) forcing the Congress to bite the dust, is bound to boost the image of State CM Narendra Modi and “catapult him to the position of the (party’s) chief campaigner for the 2014 elections at the national level”—Modi was indeed rewarded with that post at the party’s National Executive meeting in Goa.

However, the anointment of Modi as the chairman of the BJP’s election campaign committee resulted in two major reactions: the decision of party patriarch L.K. Advani to resign from all the top posts of the BJP; and the prospect of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar leading his party, the JD(U), out of the NDA (that, according to latest reports, can take place as early as this week-end).

Advani fired the salvo no doubt and sent shock-waves in the BJP’s top leadership. But eventually he was compelled to eat the humble pie. On finding the party leadership adamant against making any compromise on the elevation of Modi to the position of head of the BJP’s election campaign, Advani eventually clutched on to RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s hand for the face-saving agreement that enabled him to withdraw his resignation letter. What was ironical was that the same RSS, against which Advani is believed to have complained (on the ground that it was meddling in the affairs of the BJP), had to assume the role of peacemaker at the behest of none elese but the party patriarch himself!

But thereafter has begun a new drama. Modi’s clout in the BJP having grown by several degrees following the Advani episode, Nitish Kumar is about to quit the NDA with his JD(U). Regardless of what one thinks of Nitish, he does have a point: if indeed Modi becomes the BJP’s candidate for the next PM, party faithfuls may be enthused beyond measure, but the party and the Alliance it leads is bound lose the support of the Muslims countrywide (remember Modi had studiously refused to offer even a token apology for the state-sponsored anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat in February-March 2002, and he had also declined to wear a fez cap gifted to him by Muslim leaders in Gandhinagar). This is something Nitish cannot countenance under any pretext; and hence his impending revolt.

Against this backdrop Advani is trying to come out of his isolation and marginalisation in the party by seeking his best to salvage the NDA seemingly on the verge of collapse. He has already requested the Akali Dal leadership to exhort Nitish not to quit the Alliance.

Meanwhile Nitish has positively responded to West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s efforts to forge a ‘Federal Front’ of regional parties outside the UPA and NDA. Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik too has welcomed the move. Even if this endeavour does not bear fruit in the long run, it cannot immediately be described as a damp squib.

In the meantime the Maoists too are not sitting idle. After the massacre of Congress leaders in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma (the latest among the injured to breathe his last is former Union Minister V.C. Shukla who has expired after battling for life for 17 days) they have now targeted helpless passengers of the Dhanbad-Patna Inter-City Express near Jamui in Bihar. The attack reportedly was intended to loot weapons. However, one wonders what the Maoists real intention is. To provoke massive retaliation by the state engineering heavy collateral damage? In any case such terror-centric acts devoid of any mass political approach need to be unambiguously decried not only for their senselessness and futility but also because these are essentially counter-productive.

Complexities abound in the whirligig political scenario as the Congress leaders and UPA Govern-ment once more seek to call a special session of Parliament to get the Food Security Bill passed. The NCP, a key ally of the Congress in the ruling coalition at the Centre, having vetoed the Ordinance route in this regard, the government functionaries have no option but to again fervently appeal to the Opposition to adopt the legislation in Parliament after due discussion and debate. Would the latter respond this time?

That is a million dollar question.

June 13 S.C.