How can India and Pakistan Avoid High Risk Situations in Future | Bharat Dogra

While just now there is a widespread feeling of relief that a much bigger potential disaster has been averted due to the clinching of an early ceasefire, thanks to the wisdom displayed at a crucial juncture by the leaders of India and Pakistan, this feeling of relief is also tinged by the serious concern that the two countries had come perilously close to a full-blown war. India and Pakistan should not only keep way from war, in addition they should also strive to avoid getting so close to war. If there is one issue on which there can be almost complete consensus among all those people who care for human life, it is that there should never be a war between two nuclear weapon powers.

Hence it is very important to look at the situations in which the two hostile countries have been going up the escalation ladder from time to time in the recent past to come very close to an all-out war, and then examine how and to what extent such potentially disastrous situations can be prevented from emerging again.

One pattern that has emerged is that there is a terrorist attack in India which is widely suspected to have Pakistani links and this is followed by India’s response in the form of a strike against terrorist targets in Pakistan. This is what sets the escalation ladder moving. Of course there can be other factors and provocations, but this has been the more frequent pattern in recent times.

While it may be difficult to find very specific evidence of Pakistani links and involvement in all such terrorist attacks, the reality of Pakistan’s sheltering, helping, instigating and grooming of several terrorist groups is well-established. While such trends had existed in the past too, three factors in particular increased this threat from terror groups based in or supported by Pakistan.

Firstly, at the time the Soviet Union Army was asked to come to the help of the communist regime in Afghanistan (1979-89), the USA launched a huge effort based in and hugely supported by Pakistan, to bring in fighters with fundamentalist leanings from many parts of the world, and in addition indoctrination of those of tender age to prepare them for such a role in future. These heavily armed and well-trained fighters played an important role in ousting the communist regime of Afghanistan. After the USA lost interest and with dwindling support in base area, some of the fighters turned towards other places and were particularly instigated to move towards India.

Secondly, this phase of Pakistan under the leadership of General Zia also increased further the role of the army in the country’s governance and the heavy influence of fundamentalist and militant extremism in politics as well as in army, so that this became a way of acquiring political legitimacy by those who lacked it. Hence extremist groups were courted by those in power and it became very difficult to act against them even when they went out of control. At the same time, the army also used them in very opportunistic ways to achieve narrow and sometimes very dangerous aims, as at the time of the Kargil war in 1999.

Thirdly, after Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons, this was sought to be used in very dangerous ways to increase the use of terror-groups against India. The new and very dangerous doctrine here was that as India is unlikely to take the high risk of invading a country having nuclear weapons, it had now become much safer for Pakistan to support or instigate terror group attacks more frequently to bleed India.

These factors combined together to increase Pakistan-supported terrorist attacks in India. At the same time in international investigations of several terrorist attacks in other countries as well, some links of terrorists based in or coming from Pakistan were revealed several times. Leaders and members of terror groups involved in terror attacks or even airplane hijackings or in chains leading to terror attacks were known to be freely moving around in Pakistan or even enjoying protected and comfortable existence. Under international pressure when sometimes action against them was taken at all, this was widely believed to be more of a show than effective action aimed at rooting out terrorism. Only when terror groups went out of control to fight the Pakistani army itself that stronger action was taken against them, but sometimes there was some hesitation even in such situations.

These are the circumstances in which the threat of terrorism supported from across the border has increased in India and has become a very sensitive issue. In addition in recent years Pakistan too has become the increasing victim of terrorist violence, often at the hands of terrorists that initially were groomed by the state security agencies themselves to some extent or the other.

The evidence of recent times does not indicate that terrorists known to be active against India faced any strong action from the Pakistani authorities to curb their activities.

Another factor is the continuing domination of the Pakistani military in some crucial aspects of policy, including matters relating to India, so that even when an agreement with the government takes place, one does not know whether the military authorities will respect and follow this, particularly those officers known to be very hawkish towards India and having strong leanings towards fundamentalist thinking.

On the Indian side the situation now is of increasing political and public support for responding to any terror attack very strongly. One message delivered very strongly now is that India will not be deterred by ‘nuclear blackmail’. This means that if Pakistan keeps supporting terror attacks assuming that India will not be able to invade or give a very strong response just because of the nuclear weapons that Pakistan has, then India will not accept this position and go ahead with its strong response.

Despite the recent ceasefire, the situation remains serious in terms of the possibilities of very big destruction at a future date. Here it is very important to remember what one is trying to achieve and what one is trying to avoid. From the perspective of this writer, it is very important to avoid any big and catastrophic destruction and it is very important to try to achieve the kind of peace in which the ability of people of both countries to meet their needs on sustainable basis, to protect environment and all forms of life is enhanced.

The killing of even a single person in terrorist violence is a huge tragedy as the loss of life is very sudden and hence causes more distress. If you speak to any family that has suffered this great pain, you can realize the extent of this enormous distress.

Hence trying to minimize, and if possible eliminate terrorism and enormous distress related to terrorism is a noble objective. However, we have to be careful regarding the means that need to be used for this. All available evidence indicates that a number of methods adopted together, combining actions against terrorists, reducing their support base and various steps to reduce the causes which motivate terrorists can result in significant reduction of terrorism over a period of time, say five to ten years. This should be the path ahead.

On the other hand if someone tries to reduce the threat of terrorism in ways which can result in even higher loss of life of innocent people, then this will be difficult to justify. You cannot try to save hundreds of life in a year by indulging in actions which at their worst can kill millions of people within a few days and in addition can also contaminate environment in ways that can make vast areas inhabitable.

All said and done, the extreme dangers posed by nuclear weapons on both sides cannot be forgotten. If escalations and war ever reach a stage in which both sides use nuclear weapons, then the fact remains that millions of people can lose their life due to direct and indirect, short-term and long-term effects. Even people of neighboring countries can be seriously affected.

Hence it is extremely important for the governments of India and Pakistan to agree to cooperate for minimizing and if possible eliminating the threat of terrorist violence and also for altogether avoiding any war. The peace process should be a continuing process and a wide support base must be created for this. Ancient civilizations and great spiritual personalities have flowered in the land where the countries of India and Pakistan are located today. Our biggest homage to them would be to protect their heritage by bringing peace and prosperity, love and compassion to these lands and people.

(Author: Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Earth without Borders, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071 and Man over Machine-A Path to Peace)