Indo-US relations under the Trump Presidency 2.0 | P. S. Jayaramu

March 10, 2025

Undoubtedly, dealing with the United States under Trump 2.0 is the biggest challenge that Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces. Though it has been widely reported and perhaps believed that Modi enjoys a special personal relationship with the US President Donald Trump, it must be recognised that dealing with Trump in his second Presidency is a very formidable task for Modi and External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. There are multiple reasons for it. Firstly, Trump has returned to the White House armed with a big popular mandate. Secondly, Trump’s position as US President and his bargaining power has increased tremendously as the Republican Party controls both the Houses of the US Congress. Thirdly, Trump has managed to bring to key positions men and women who are his loyalists and go the extra mile to implement not only his policy ambitions but, are bullish in projecting his views. Some of the examples are Vice President JD Vance’s speech at thr Munich Security conference telling America’s allies that the threats to their security are from within, his admonition of Zelenskyy in the later’s meeting with President Trump at the Oval Office etc. The same is evident in the manner in which President Trump is ‘supporting’ Russian President Putin in his offensive against Ukraine. President is having his way in the handling of the issue of bringing the Ukraine war to a closure with a ceasefire to begin with and then a peace agreement depending on the way he extracts minerals deals with both Ukraine and Russia. It looks like he will have his way as he believes in the dictum : My way or Hihway! In such a scenario, it will be a mighty challeng for the Modi government to deal with the Trump Administration in the coming months.

Let me start from the beginning, the inauguration of the Trump Presidency. Whether the government accepts it or not, the perception that has circulated is that PM Modi wanted to attend the inauguration, but the invitation was not extended to him because Donald Trump had some grouses against Modi beginning with Modi not meeting him during his visit to the US during final days of Biden Presidency and his perceived closeness with Biden and his policies. It is reported in sections of the media that the Indian efforts to extract an invitation did not succeed due to Trump’s ‘displeasure’ with Modi. In any case, the Indian foreign office succeeded in persuading the US government to extend an invitation for a State visit to the US by PM Modi.

Against the above background let me get down to an analysis of the issues in Indo-US relations. While it is a fact, as noted above, that PM Modi was able to visit the US within a month of the inauguration of Trump’s second Presidency, in hindsight it is clear that the Indian side had not made adequate preparations to handle the vexed issues of trade, tariff and the deportation of illegal Indian migrants in a sub-human way by the US government by military air craft. Even after so much discussion at the political and media levels of India’s displeasure over the handling of the deportation issue, the HS side sent illegal migrants in military aircraft’s only. It is reasonable to assume that PM Modi might not have discussed the deportation issue wiith President Trump. The foreign minister Dr Jaishankar’s statement in the Parliament that we have to accept the so-called standard operating procedures of the US government on the issue was a disappointment. A smaller country like Columbia was much more forthright in its protest over deportation of its illegal migrants in military aircraft’s. Simply put, the Indian Establishment caved in to the American side in its over-enthusiasm to make the PM’s Washington visit a ‘success’.

The details of the visit itself merit some analysis. It must not be lost sight of that President Trump made a deliberate effort to announce on the very morning of Modi’s arrival in Washington that his Administration would charge equal and reciprocal tariffs on the Indian goods entering the US market. He defended his position in his interactions with Modi during their meeting. That was despite the fact that the Indian government had made certain concessions to the US by announcing the lowering of tariff on certain US goods in the Union Budget to appease the Trump Administration. The announcement that came through the joint statement after Modi’s visit was that the two sides have agreed to carry on official level negotiations on the issue of tariff by the fall of 2025. While that remained the official position, President Bush recently announced that the Indian side has agreed to lower the tariff on its goods, preempting the terms for official level negotiations. It is interesting to notice that the South Block has not issued any any communique to counter President Trump’s statement. There are also pressures on India to buy oil and natural gas from the US, though the terms of trade would be disadvantageous to us.

As a raising power in the international system, the India government should be bold enough to avoid its postures from being seen as appeasement. It is pertinent to recall that the Indian leaders took bold positions to serve our national interests in the past, be it Indira Gandhi opposing the entry of US seventh fleet in 1971, not to speak of Mrs. Gandhi’s frank exchanges with Richard Nixon leading to their summit becoming a fiasco earlier, the peaceful nuclear implosion of 1974 and the handling of sanctions, Vajpayee’s decision as Prime Minister to make India a nuclear weapons state and Dr. Manmohan Singh’s position on the issue of signing the nuclear deal with the US. The Indian leadership must be alive to the fact that our technological prowess and the fact of Indian tech-gaints contributing in a substantial manner to America’s prosperity can be set as bargaining chips to leverage our position with the Trump Administration. It does not behove well for a ‘Viswaguru’ to be seen as appeasing the US dispensation.

Furthermore, the Indian government must convey to its American counterpart that the two countries enjoy a significant level of trade relations, in addition to India being America’s strategic partner, besides the two being members of the Quad. The over-cautiousness in India’s handling of the Trump Administration perhaps lies in the fact that President Trump may not need us in dealing with China. Being widely known as a deal maker, President Trump may cut a deal with the Chinese President and manage the relationship to the satisfaction of both sides. It is also a fact that President Trump has marginalised India in his efforts to end the Ukraine war. By dealing directly with President Putin,he is bypassing America’s NATO allies.

By way of conclusion,it needs to be underlined that President Trump is projecting a bipolar world consisting of America and Russia as the global players. China, as the tripolar power, is likely to be handled either by loosening the Sino-Russian linkages or, more possibly, by persuading China to have its own spheres of influence. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen. In the emerging Trumpian international order, it is likely that America, Russia and China will be the pivotal global actors, with Europe, India and the Global South being made to tailor their policies to serve their intersts. In such an emerging strategic dispensation, India will face multiple challenges in its bilateral relations with the US.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Professor of Political Science at Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi.)