Recent developments on ending the Ukraine war : Some Thoughts | P. S. Jayaramu

The world is witnessed to unusual and mind-boggling developments in recent days on the efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The roots of such efforts,must no doubt be traced to Donald Trump’s statements during the American Presidential election campaign when he boosted that he would end the war in 24 hours if he is elected as the President. That was a rethoric. But, in all fairness to Trump, it must be acknowledged that Trump embarked on his initiatives to end the Ukraine war, very quickly after assuming office.

Trump’s war termination efforts started with his long 90 minutes telephonic conversation with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, where the two leaders are reported to have agreed in principle to end the war and to work out the details at official levels. One thing emerged out of Trump-Putin talks, viz, that they agreed that the two leaders and nations ( Russia and America) would be the principal players/actors in any efforts to hammer out a solution, clearly implying that Ukraine and Europe would not be involved in talks, though Ukraine would necessarily be brought into the picture at a later stage. Well, one can agree or disagree on their thinking and pattern of conflict resolution, but, it underscored that as the Principal players in international affairs, America and Russia would prepare not only the groundwork, but, decide on the terms of settlement. Trump and Putin also appeared to convey that in the post post-Cold War era, they would treat international politics largely as bipolar and that others would revolve around them, whether they like it or not.

In their conversations, Putin stressed that he would agree to ending the war only if America ensures that (a) Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO and (b) Russia would retain the territories it had conquered in the course of the war.That President Trump agreed to Putin’s terms is evident from his statements that Ukraine should abandon its pursuit of NATO membership and that it would be unrealistic to expect Russia to withdraw from the territories it has acquired during the war. In a manner of speaking, Trump endorsed ending the war on statusquoist lines, though Putin-Trump agreement was not to the liking of Zelenskyy and European powers.

Trump went forward with his pursuits and got a dialogue arranged in Saudi Arabia between Moscow and Washington,excluding Ukrainian and European participation in the talks. US Vice President Vance in his address at the European Security Conference at Munich underlined Trump’s long held view that Europe should pay for its security and that It would not be underwritten by the US.

It is against the above background that we need to understand the visits of the French President Emmanuel Macron and that of the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Washington recently, where both emphasised their opposition to NATO and Europe ( Including UK) being left out in any efforts at resolving the Ukraine war. They also reiterated their support to Ukraine. But, Trump thinks otherwise.

The visit of Zelenskyy to Washington and his controversial meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office need to be understood against the background of Trump’s own thinking and posture. The meeting was a big diplomatic fiasco with President Trump and President Zelenskyy talking at each other, while the US Vice President Vance added fire to the already surcharged atmosphere. By all accounts, it was the most undiplomatic meeting between two Presidents. Leaving the theatrics aside, the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting signalled clearly that America wants a quick end to the war in the form of a ceasefire followed by a peace agreement. In fact, Trump did say so in his talks with Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy’s post-meeting statement that he is prepared to sign a minerals agreement with the US, possibly in return for what the Biden Administration spent in support to Ukraine’s war efforts. But, Zelenskyy’s statement did not seem to pacify President Trump, as he is assured by Putin of a similar agreement with Trump to exploit its hard minerals which America is diffficient in. Talk of ‘Minerals Deal’ apart, Trump and Putin are cosying up to each other conveying thereby that Russia and American are the two principal actors in the international system. Viewed from such a perspective, irrespective of whether the other actors in the international system agree or not, a resolution of the Ukraine conflict appears likely in the foreseeable future. This is where we need to discuss how would Zelenskyy himself react to the Putin-Trump conflict resolution formula. If Zelenskyy is found to be an obstacle, he may be replaced by a new President, as indications to that effect are already emerging from Ukraine, with some members of Parliamrnt contemplating to impeach Zelenskyy. A possible American hand in such efforts can not be ruled out.

It is at this juncture that we need to look into the European and Britain’s talk of standing firm with Ukraine. However, the more serious question is will Europe and UK be able to support Ukraine for a longer term. In my view, brave statements of European leaders notwithstanding, they would not be in a position, both in terms of supply of weapons and political support, to stay firm with Ukraine and Zelenskyy, given the fact that they have to pay for their own security, as is being demanded by President Trump.

A tentative conclusion that emerges from a realist perspective of the developments is that the Russian-American ‘solution’ may emerge successful to arrive at a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine war. As I had argued in these columns earlier, Ukraine should abandon its pursuit of NATO membership and agree to remain a buffer between Eastern and Western Europe, a proposition which would be acceptable to the US and Russia, in view of the enormous costs the latter has paid in prosecuting the war. Ukraine’s quest for security guarantees will have to be pursued under such a broad architecture.

(Author: Prof. P. S. Jayaramu is former Dean, Faculty of Arts, Bangalore University and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)