Understanding the Status of Climate Change and Refugees

by Sonali Narang

It is now a well accepted fact that climate change has become the most dangerous problem before humanity. In this paper, I have tried to explain how the process of migration, which is stimulated by climate change, is leading to displacement of people particularly in South Asia.

Climate Change and Displacement

MILLIONS of people around the globe are at the risk of displacement due to climate change turning them out of their homes, whether temporarily or permanently. It is believed that nine out of every ten disasters are somehow related to climate change. (Climate Change and Displacement Review: 2008) It has become an accepted fact among the international community that climate change is going to result in large-scale displacement. There will be tremendous migration and it will lead to the emergence of ‘environmental migrants’. (IPCC: 2007) We can call those groups of people as “environmental refugees” who either choose or are forced to leave their place due to environmental damages and/or the climatic factor. It is believed that climate change will effect migration in three distinct ways.

Firstly, through warming. It would lead to drying in some areas and this drying can reduce the agricultural potential and undermine ecosystem services such as clean water and fertility of land which will force people to move from their native land.

Secondly, the increase in extreme weather conditions like heavy rains and river floods in the tropical area will affect the life of more people which will force them to move out from their habitual area of residence.

The third factor which will lead to climate-induced migration is the rise of the sea level; rise in the sea level will submerge the extremely productive areas into the sea and it will force millions of people to move toward safer havens. (Climate Change and Displacement Review: 2008)

In the coming few years, there are possibilities that climate change will motivate and force people to leave their homes in search of safer havens. This is a new kind of migration. While the accurate number of migrants and displaced people may evade science for some time, the mass of people on the move will likely be staggering and surpass any historical precursor.

In present times, a great majority of environmental migrants originate in the rural areas of the least developed countries. This trend is expected to shift slightly in the coming years as densely populated coastal zones become increasingly affected by sea-level rise and more frequent storms, and mountain areas are affected by heavy rains and subsequent floods and landslides. In such events, most climate migrants would move and settle in urban centres within their home countries. The impact of global warming on human habitat is being felt in different ways around the world. The Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that rising sea levels are threatening the very existence of small island states and these states fear displacement due to melting ice. Scientists place the figure of displaced people at somewhere between 50 million and 250 million in the next 50 years.

Status of Climate Refugee

THE movement of people is not a new process in human history. Most of the civilisations have come up as a result of people’s migration to river valleys, for example, the birth of the ancient Egyptian Civilisation. It was only with the emergence of the modern nation-state system, particularly after the treaty of Westphalia, that the new notion of legality and illegality got attached to the process of migration. The IPCC defines a climate refugee as a displaced person due to climate change, including environmental disasters. Such disasters are evidence of human-influenced ecological change and disruption of the Earth’s climate system, primarily through the emissions of greenhouse gases. Humankind has drastically altered the chemical composition of the global atmosphere, with profound implications for the climate.

Extreme weather conditions like floods and famines have always forced people to move from one place to another, but nowadays the anthropogenic climate change has altered the traditional understanding of environmental refugees. Rising sea level is the major driver in people’s movement in the context of climate change. Many people living in small islands are no longer able to get their traditional food and they are also facing the problem of drinking water, as it is becoming salty day by day. The areas which are most affected by climate change are the coastal areas like Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is a low-lying, densely populated land of the Ganges. The world’s first climate refugees are said to be the five thousand residents of Bhola Island in Bangladesh, who were left homeless after half of the island became permanently flooded in 2005. The IPCC has estimated that 22 million people in Bangladesh will be forced from their homes by 2050 because of climate change. Climate change thus enhances huge environmental migration and internally displaced people. “Large numbers of people are already on the move with millions expected to follow as the evidence of climate change mounts.” (Steiner in Mallick, 2008) Climate change is causing damage to agriculture which is forcing people to move like in the 2007 floods when Bangladesh experienced 40 per cent crop loss and also faced deadly diseases and severe flood insecurity. From different affected areas poor people moved to cities due to the climate change in Bangladesh. There has been significant rural to urban migration which has posed additional burden on the Bangladeshi cities. Dhaka is the main hub and it is growing at an alarming rate of seven per cent annually. The poor people are coming to cities due to both the push and pull factors and the cities are becoming unmanageable. (Ibid.)

The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security has noted: “More than five million Bangladeshis live in areas highly vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges, and over half the population lives within 100 km of the coast, most of which is less than 12 metres above the sea level, flooding and currently displacing about 500,000 people every year. In 2007, two extreme weather events devastated the country: flooding caused 3363 deaths and affected 10 million people as well as reducing crop yields by 13 per cent. Just months later, Cyclone Sidr destroyed 1.5 million houses, large areas of cropland and mangrove forests, and affected 30 out of 64 districts in the country. Millions experienced food insecurity (monga) and required evacuation, shelter and relief assistance. As devastating as these cyclones were, early warning systems were successful in preventing the deaths of many thousands more. In 1970 a cyclone caused the deaths of an estimated 300,000, and in 1991 another 140,000 died.”

In the context of South Asia, the irony of the situation can be gleaned from the fact that while climate change has led to acute shortage of water in some places, it has at the same time resulted in abundance of water in other parts of the country. The melting glacial ice of the Himalayas in summer provides most of the drinking water. It is estimated that 40 per cent of the world’s population is depending on drinking water dispersed by the Himalayas which is disappearing rapidly at an alarming rate. In Bangladesh, refugees can no longer farm on drowning coastal land which is shifting, and cannot find jobs in cities which are already crammed with jobless and desperate masses. Bangladesh has 140 million people, almost half the US population; this shows how Bangladesh is at the point of risk compared to Western countries.

Climate Refugees and International Law

THE refugee law does not apply certain protective principles and does not give any status to those who are displaced by climate change. People who are displaced by climate change don’t qualify as refugees under ‘international law’. The term refugee has been defined under international law in the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. It defines refugees as those people who are outside their country of origin, with a great fear of persecution on the basis of their race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership of a particular social group. (McNamara, 2007)

Many people who have been displaced by climate change are internally displaced people subject to soft-law principles rather than any binding treaty obligations. The UNHCR is a leading agency for the IDPs; it only deals with those IDPs who are forced to move as a result of conflict. We find here a great irony in saying that there is great danger in climate induced displacement which will create conflict as resources become increasingly scarce.

Also the Refugee Convention says that refugees are those people who are unwilling to return to their country of origin because of a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion. An immediate obstacle to locating environmental displacement within the framework of the international refugee law is characterising it as persecution. Storms, earthquakes and floods may be harmful, but they do not constitute ‘persecution’ according to the way that term has been interpreted.

Thirdly, even if it were possible to establish legal causation, the Refugee Convention poses an additional hurdle for those displaced by climate change: namely, that persecution is on account of the individual’s race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership of a particular social group. Movement precipitated by climate change is inevitably indiscriminate.

It is said that global warming is resulting in greater consequences for the developing countries which lack in resources to combat it. The conditions in low-lying countries such as the Netherlands and Bangladesh are vastly different, with the former able to safeguard itself from rising seas through the construction of dykes and sea walls, while the latter suffers from lack of resources and technology to prevent this; in Bangladesh 17 million people are currently living on less than one metre above the sea level.

The greatest challenge before the international refugee law is how to describe people displaced by climate change. Since 1985 there has been wide usage of the term ‘environment refugee’ which represents those people who have been displaced by damaging environmental and climatic factors. But the choice of the term refugee for them is highly controversial. Although it provides a useful description of displacement, it does not accurately reflect in legal terms the status of those who move. Politically and legally speaking, it is provocative, but also reflects the law’s inadequate response to dealing with displacement of this kind. At the most basic level, it highlights the absence of analysis in international law of the movement of people spurred by climatic rather than directly political upheaval; at the same time, the human element of the upheaval cannot be ignored, since the governments’ failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has, ultimately, contributed to the situation.

One of the major problems which climate refugees are facing is associated with human rights violation. Human rights laws are considered respectful in international relations, but the concept like sovereignty and inter-national order are always contested with it. Human rights laws conform right to life for everyone; every person has the right to an adequate standard of living including adequate food, clothing, housing etc. These rights can also be identified for the victims of climate change, people who are forced to leave their home by changing climate. The major human rights treaties were developed before the understanding of climate change as a threat to human existence. Refugees, as discussed above, have some rights under the conventions and protocol on refugee laws, but when it comes to climate refugees, nation-states are yet to consider climate change as an issue which can qualify for granting asylum.

Climate Refugees and Conflicts

THE process of climate migration also triggers conflicts. The nature of conflict caused by climate migrants comes up as conflict related to resources. Climate change poses environmental stress and this stress itself leads to migration. The shortage of resources and competition can lead to conflict. The scarcity of resources will lead to fighting among the people if they find decline in their living conditions. We can take the example of people working in the agricultural sector where the conditions being more difficult, people migrate to urban area in search of employment; this can lead to conflict among the host and immigrant communities. Houqe and Elliqsen have found a positive link between environmental degradation and violence. People also indulge in violence because governments lack the capacity to adapt to environmental changes which further stimulate environmental conflicts. (Salehyan, 2005)

Climate Refugees and Institutional Mechanism

THE problem of refugees has attracted the attention of nations long before—that is, in the 1940s and 1950s. It was in 1951 that the United Nations had successfully reached a consensus to put in place a specific Convention on Refugees. In this Convention of 1951, it gave certain rights to refugees. But as far as the institutional mechanism for climate refugees is concerned, there is no institutional framework to deal with the problem of climate refugees. Although the UN Environmental Programme introduced the issue of environmental displacement on the international agenda over 20 year ago, nothing much has happened on the ground as there is no international organisation which can assume official responsibility for such an issue. There is thus no appropriate institutional mechanism to deal with the problem of climate migrants or climate refugees. (McAdam, 2007)

As far as the question of South Asia is concerned, the countries of South Asia have not yet ratified the 1951 Convention on Refugees and there seems no further possibility that these states are going to sign this Convention. In this situation where even the question of political refugees has not been adequately addressed, it is not feasible that South Asian states are going to agree to any institutional mechanism in regard to climate refugees. The future of climate refugees in South Asia thus remains uncertain and unusually bleak in the absence of any regime of rights which can address their genuine concerns.

Conclusion

ENVIRONMENTAL degradation can generate migration flows. Global warming in particular would lead to major forced displacements. This will result due to rising sea levels. The increase in droughts and meteorological disasters, predicted by the climatic models, will have drastic impacts in terms of migrations, but these will remain regional and short-term, and at present are difficult to estimate. Existing research shows that due to a number of factors involved, climatic or environmental hazards inevitably lead to migrations. Many authors note that even if disasters become more frequent in the future, political efforts and measures of protection will be needed. The Stern Report is clear in this respect and states that “the exact number who will actually be displaced or forced to migrate will depend on the level of investment, planning and resources”, before estimating the cost of mitigation to be several billion dollars.

The very concept of climate or environmental refugee needs to be re-looked into. What kinds of reforms could be suggested in the existing international refugee rights regime to help bring within its purview the issues confronting the climate refugees? Simply including environmental motives in the 1951 definition of refugees seems politically unfeasible due to the very likely opposition of the receiving countries. It would probably not achieve its objective of protection as the majority of displacements take place in the interior of the countries affected. It would also risk threatening the coherence of an international framework of refugee protection that already has difficulty in obliging states to respect their commitments. As stated in 2005 by the then Under Secretary General of the UN, Hans van Ginkel, “This is a highly complex issue, with global organisations already overwhelmed by the demands of the conventionally-recognised refugees as originally defined in 1951. We should prepare now, however, to define, accept and accommodate this new breed of refugee within international framework.” (Piguet, 2008, p. 9)

This can perhaps be done at two levels: one, there should be an increased international cooperation with a view to collective burden sharing of assistance and prevention in countries confronted with disasters, and two, by opening emigration channels with the recognition of environmental push factors in subsidiary international instruments of protection such as temporary protection schemes. This second option seems more viable for urgent cases but brings with it numerous problems, in particular the question of responsibility for the displacement of the person from the disaster zone to the receiving zone. It is evident that without firm preventative action, global warming could have serious consequences in terms of forced migrations. This must be more widely recognised and stimulate scientific and political awareness.

REFERENCES

Dwijen L. Mallick (2008), “Growing Environmental and Climate Refugees in Bangladesh: Urgent Actions are Required”, paper presented in C40 Tokyo
Conference on Climate Change – Adaptation Measures for Sustainable Low Carbon Cities. Available from http://www2.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/c40/c40tokyo/pdf/session5/dl_mallick.pdf [Accessed on March 23, 2010]

Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (2007), Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group II, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

McAdam (2007), “Climate Change ‘Refugees’ and International Law”, NSW Bar Association. Available from www.nswbar.asn.au/circulars/climatechange1.pdf [Accessed on March 15, 2010]

McNamara (2007), “Conceptualising discourses on environmental refugees at the United Nations”, Popul Environ (2007), Vol. 29, pp. 12–24.

Piguet, 2008. “Climate change and forced migration”, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Policy Development and Evaluation Service Research Paper No. 153. Available from: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/EVOD-7D3KDR/$file/UNHCR_Jan2008.pdf? openelement [Accessed on March 5, 2010]
Salehyan. 2005, “Refugees, Climate Change, and Instability”, paper presented in Human Security and Climate Change An International Workshop Oslo, June 21-23, 2005. Available from: http://www.gechs.org/downloads/holmen/Salehyan.pdf [Accessed on March 10, 2010]

Warner and the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security: 2009, “In Search of Shelter Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement”.Available from: http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/documents/clim-migr-report-june09_final.pdf [Accessed on March 21, 2010]

The author is a Research Scholar in Panjab University, Chandigarh working on climate change and migration.