Assembly Polls (2026) in Kerala:
 Spectacular Show by the UDF | M. R. Biju

Prelude

The Election Commission of India announced the schedule for the Kerala Legislative Assembly Elections on 15th March 2026. As per the schedule, date of poll notification came on 16th March, last date for filing nominations was fixed as 23rd March and scrutiny of nomination were held on 24th March, and 26th March was fixed as the last date for withdrawal of nominations. Deadline for the completion of entire election process was fixed as 6th May 2026. This was the first election in the state held after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral roll. The total number of voters in the state this time was 27142952 comprising 13220811 male, 13921868 female and 273 transgender voters. Elections were held on 9th April 2026 and poll results were declared on 4th May 2026.

II
 Pre Poll Scene- Poll Campaign and Releasing of Manifestos

The Left Democratic Front in February 2026 organised “Vikasana Munnetta Jadha” (Development Advancement March), a political march aimed at highlighting the developmental achievement of the LDF government. On 10th March the LDF released its campaign slogan for the assembly election captioned “Mattarund LDF Allathe?” (Who else but LDF?). On 17th March the Chief Minister started his election campaign from his home constituency, Dharmadam. On 2nd April the LDF officially released its manifesto focusing the following key promises:

• A sixty point program containing 95 proposals to create a new Kerala
• Eradicating obsolete poverty by uplifting five lakh families
• Increase social welfare pension from Rs.2000 to Rs.3000
• Assured job opportunity for educated youth through campus placements
• ‘Back to Campus’ Scheme for skill advancement
• Ensuring 50% women work force participation
• Rapid transit systems in Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode
• Timely completion of Sabarimala railway

On the other hand marking the beginning of UDF election campaign he leader of opposition V.D. Satheshan on 6th February 2026 launched the ‘Puthuyuga Yathra’ (March into a New Era). The march began at Kumbala in Kasaragod and concluded at Thiruvananthapuram on 7th March. The closing event was inaugurated by Rahul Gandhi, who announced five poll promises. On 15th March the UDF released its election slogan “Keralam Jeyikkum, UDF Nayikkum” (Kerala will win and UDF will lead). The Chief Minister of Telengana, Reventh Reddy released the UDF election manifesto on 2nd April, focusing on Indira guarantees. The key promises of the UDF include:

• Monthly allovance of Rs.1000 for college going girls
• Increase social welfare pension from Rs.2000 to Rs.3000
• Interest free loans up to five lakh for young entrepreneurs
• Separate department for senior citizens’ welfare and protection
• Free Bus Travel for women in KSRTC buses
• Oommen Chandy Health Insurance Scheme providing Rs.25 lakh coverage per house hold.

The BJP left NDA released their campaign slogan “Marathathu Ini Marum” (What never changed, will change now). On 6th March the Kerala BJP organized a public interaction and mega adalat in Dharmadam constituency represented by the chief Minister. On 11th March 2026 Prime Minister launched BJP’s official campaign and BJP’s national President released the NDA manifesto with the following promises:

• Rs.3000 Monthly social welfare pension for women widows and senior citizens
• 20,000 liters of free water supply per household per month
• Two free LPG cylinders annually for poor households
• Establishment of AIIMS
• High speed railway network linking Thiruvananthapuram and Kannur
• Bhaashya-Arogya Suraksha Card providing Rs.2500 support to women from poor and below poverty line households

III
 Polling - 78.27% voter turnout

Kerala recorded 78.27% of voter turnout – its fourth highest in the poll history. The state had registered 76% polling in 2021 assembly election which broke a four decade long trend of voting out incumbent government. The state of Kerala had seen higher voter turn outs in 1960 (85.70%) , 1987 (80.58%), and 1977 (79.20%).

According to the ECI, this time 80.86% of female voters, 75.01% of male voters and 57.04% of transgender voters cast their votes. Among the districts Kozhikode had the highest polling percentage at 81.32% followed by Palakkad 80.56%. The turnout of the remaining twelve districts are Alappuzha 77.41%, Ernakulum 79.78%, Idukki 77.15%, Kannur 78.52%, Kasaragod 79.06%, Kollam 76.28%, Kottayam 74.60%, Malappuram 79.74%, Pathanamthitta 70.76%, Thiruvananthapuram 77.08%, Trissur 77.10% and Wayanad 78.81%. There were 883 candidates in the fray for assembly elections this time.

IV
 Poll outcome

Spectacular Show by the UDF

The Congress led UDF registered a historic victory with three-fourths majority in the state. After a decade in opposition, the UDF returned to power with a 46.55% vote share surpasses only by its performance in 2001 election of 49.05%. Its gain of 7.67% points over its 2021 vote share. The jump has translated into a seat gain of 62, taking the UDF to 102 seats in 2026. On the other hand the CPIM led LDF has experienced a drop of 7.1% from its 2021 performance, polling 37.34% of the vote and falling 64 seats from its 2021 tally of 99 to just 35 seats in 2026. This was worst performance of the LDF in the past four decades. In every assembly elections since 1982, the LDF had polled at least 43.5% of the vote share. Its previous low was 43.48% in 2016 and 43.07% in 2001. The 2026 figure of 37.34% is more than 6 points below that of the previous polls and over 11 points below of 2006 polls (48.63%).

Region Level Performance

In the Malabar region the LDF suffered a crushing defeat. It lost 20 seats it had previously (2021) held in the region, whereas the UDF secured 50.29% of the votes with more than half of all votes casted in the region. In this context it has to be mentioned that UDF’s performance was strong across all the three regions with vote shares of 45.27% in Kochi, 43.21% in Travancore, and 50.29% in Malabar. But on the other hand the vote share of the LDF declined sharply across all the three regions settling within a narrow 36.6% – 38% band and helping it retain a high of just 16 seats in Kochi region on a 37.96% vote share. The Travancore region where the LDF held 40 seats in 2021, now just 11 which is a 29 seats collapse. The BJP led NDA won all its three seats from Travancore area with a vote share of 17.78%. BJP’s vote share has improved across all regions.

Front wise Picture

The LDF comprised of CPIM, CPI, Kerala Congress (M), RJD, NCP, ISJD, INL, Congress (S), KC(B), RSPL and Independents. This time both CPIM and CPI registered similar vote shares close to 39%. The CPIM which contested 77 seats has reduced to 26 a loss of 36 seats from 2021 whereas the CPI dropped from 17 to 8 of the 24 seats it contested. On the other hand, the UDF includes INC, IUML, KC(J), RSP, RMP, CMP, KC and Independents. The Congress contested 92 seats and won 63, an improvement of 42 seats over 2021, on a 7.14 points gain with an vote share of 45.03%. The IUML which contested 26 seats and won 22 against 15 in 2021. The party polled 52.54% of the vote in their constituencies, the highest contested vote share for any political party across the alliances. The Kerala Congress (Joseph) contested in 8 and won 7. Apart from the LDF and the UDF, the BJP which drew a zero in 2021 has increased its tally to its highest ever in the state and captured 3 seats. The vote share of the NDA rose 1.79% points to 14.2% while the BJP itself polled 16.04% in the seats it contested, having shared with its allies the BDJS and Twenty 20 Party.

Minor Political Parties in the LDF were wiped out

The spectacular show of the UDF has raised questions over the survival of several minor political parties in the state especially in the LDF camp. Out of such small parties many of them were wiped out from the political map of the state. Notable among them include KC(B), RSP(L), and Congress(S). These parties used to send one member each to the state assembly. KC(B) retained Pathanapuram constituency for the past 25 years. Similarly RSP(L) which retained Kunnathoor constituency since 2001. Like KC(B) and RSP(L), the Congress(S) has also faced an existential crisis through the defeat of Ramachandran Kadanapalli in Kannur. In the same manner the Kizhakambalam based Twenty 20 an ally of NDA has also failed to make a solid electoral impact.

Rout of the KC(M)

The poll result has shaken the political foundations of the Kerala Congress politics. The KC(M) suffered a complete wiped out in the poll, which lost all 12 seats it contested. On the other hand KC(J) made a history by winning 7 out of 8 seats it contested. The defeat for the KC(M) was brutal in all sense. Interestingly the poll outcome validated concerns raised by a section of party members who had advocated rejoining the UDF shortly after the local body polls held in 2025. It has to be added that the church which extended unconditional support to the UDF to unseat the LDF completely withdrew its backing for the KC(M), because of its decision to remain aligned with the LDF. In sharp contrast, the election results further shows a remarkable resurgence for the KC(J) which had been out of power since 2016. Contesting in 8 seats the party won 7, losing only in Kanhangad.

Remarkable Show by the IUML

The IUML made a glittering performance in the assembly polls. The party had fielded 27 candidates. Out of it the party won in 22. A sharp increase of 7 seats from 2021 polls. The could consolidate its traditional vote banks and expanded its strength to new areas in the state. Further for the first time since its formation, the party has send a woman to the state assembly, which made a symbolic political breakthrough – Fathima Thahaliya from Peerambra constituency. Party general secretary P.K. Kunhalikutty secured a victory with a record margin of 87074 votes. The party worked in close cooperation with the Congress to maximize its strike rate. The poll results also vindicated that this poll the IUML has emerged as one of the principal drivers of the UDF’s thumping gains. If we are examining IUML’s electoral performance in the recent past, it is seen that in 2011 poll the party contested in 24 seats and won 20. In 2016 it contested in 23 seats and won in 18 and in 2021 it contested in 27 seats and won in 15.

BJP: Unchanged Vote Base

Though BJP could reopen its account in the assembly, its vote share remains largely unchanged. NDA’s vote share which stood 15% in the 2016 assembly elections declined to 12.4% in 2021. Absence of a credible electoral align is the major hurdle before the party in the state. The arrival of BDJS was generally expected to strengthen the NDA in Kerala. Through its entry the vote share of NDA rose from 10% to 15% in 2016. BDJS represents the Ezhava community which has been traditionally aligned to the communist parties. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls the BJP made an electoral pact with Twenty 20 hoping to cash on its anti-corruption image. But both in the Lok Sabha polls and assembly polls it could not make any notable results. In Kayamkulam constituency the BJP candidate polled 48775 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the tally came down to 16973 this time. In Aroor constituency vote share of the BJP declined from 37491 to 20334. Aroor and Kayamkulam constituencies and areas are strong holds of the Ezhava community. Similarly drop in the vote share of the BJP are seen in Trissur, Ernakulum, Kottayam, and Pathanamthitta districts which indicate the shift in Christian votes.

Strategic Political Move of the UDF

The spectacular success of the UDF was not accidental or unexpected one. The systematic and strategic initiatives undertaken by the UDF especially the Congress plied a crucial role which led to its thumping success. Early poll preparations, campaign narratives and United efforts of the UDF under the caption ‘TeamUDF’ ultimately led to the removal of the decade old LDF regime. Further the anti-incumbency sentiments, issues connected with gold scam Sabarimala issue plus systematic organizational work led to the success of the UDF. In fact the decision to accommodate CPIM detractors initially created some opposition in the UDF camp but by highlighting the point that through the adoption of detractors, the loyal UDF local leaders feared losing their opportunities. But it was amicably resolved through the timely intervention of Congress and UDF leadership. K.C. Venugopal, AICC General Secretary, assured them that those who left out would be accommodated or considered once the government is formed. It worked well throughout the state. After the Lok Sabha polls and local body polls the UDF leadership got optimism about the outcome of assembly polls. The congress high command constituted a central election implementation team to address the organizational gaps. AICC also sent observers at the state and district levels which helped a lot to identify the organizational weaknesses and resolve issues well in advance. The brainstorming sessions (Chinthan Shivir) in Wayanad and Thiruvananthapuram also played a vital role for the success of UDF and Congress. The Congress leadership was instrumental was instrumental in organizing centenary celebrations of the meeting between Sree Narayana Guru and Mahatma Gandhi in Kollam which also helped the party in a massive way in getting votes from Ezhava community.

Kerala Verdict 2026 



United Democratic Front (UDF)

Left Democratic Front (LDF)

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

AAP, BSP, Other Parties, Independents, and NOTA

V. 
Concluding Observations

In conclusion it can be stated that Kerala verdict 2026 undoubtedly shows that no party can afford to take people’s will for granted. The verdict is a clear reply to the perceived arrogance of the CPI(M) leaders and the intolerant behavior of the Chief Minister. The LDF in general and CPI(M) in particular failed to respect the sentiments of ordinary people. The common man’s agenda was simple one, to teach the ruling LDF a lesson. During the two term LDF rule they could render reasonably fair governance in the areas of social welfare, Business environment and ensuring peaceful life. But its leadership forgot a few fundamental elements of public life and societal life especially during the second term. Now time ripe for the LDF and CPI(M) to do maximum possible things to prevent erosion in its support base.

On the other hand for the Congress led UDF, the result has to be treated as a chance to prove its relevance in a state where it lost two successive assembly polls. The UDF leadership should also keep in mind that apart from their united efforts and initiatives, people’s dissatisfaction with the LDF helped them in a massive way to capture power. Naturally the future of UDF lies on the nature and extent of governance which they are going to deliver for the state and people without devoting time for group politics and in in fights. Also note that their victory was built on no single individual or party. The coalition partners in the UDF worked hard and particularly the IUML which took extra pain and effort to ensure a smooth sail. The role of the three prominent leaders deserve special mention –V.D Satheesan ,Ramesh Chennithala,K.C Venugopal. V.D Satheesan proved his mettle as a mature leader of opposition and he could won the trust, confidence and acceptance of people cutting across party lines. Ramesh Chennithala on the other hand mobilized the network he had built over the past five decades as a seasoned politician. K.C Venugopal also played an envious role in in the areas of fiscal management of the party and resolving issues of rebellious leaders across the state. Names of Sashi Tharoor and Shafi Parambil also deserve special mention here.
Before concluding, the autocratic style of functioning, arrogant posturing, alienation from ground realities coupled with internal revolts within the CPI(M) have undoubtedly contributed to the crushing and humiliating defeat of the LDF and CPI(M).Such a defeat in Kerala undoubtedly marks for the first time in the past fifty years that no state in India has any regime of the Communist party. The immediate task of the Congress leadership should be to select an apt leader for the Chief Ministerial position based on people’s will .It will ultimately decide the political destiny of the Congress Party and the UDF in the days to come.

(Author: Prof. M. R. Biju, Dean, School of Social Sciences and Head, Department of Public Administration and Policy Studies, Central University of Kerala, Kasaragod- 671325)

References

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