Mainstream WeeklyDecember 23, 2024
Autocratisation has no relationship with the per capita income of a country. Political ideas matter
The elections in India, Turkey and the US in 2024 point to the rapidly shrinking liberal political space in democracies.
Despite the enormity of the threat to a secular and inclusive vision of politics, the elections in India and Turkey, however, suggest that possibilities of liberal resilience do exist. The US, however, has failed the resilience test.
Opposition fought back in India
Since 2014, India has increasingly turned autocratic under the leadership of the right-wing Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which nominally leads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Indian elections in 2023 and 2024 point to three significant factors [1] that may have enabled the Centre-Left Indian National Congress (INC), which leads the Indian National Developmental Alliance (INDIA), to defy majoritarian politics in a limited way.
First, a secure leadership or coherent coalition that rose above competing political factions.
Second, a clear secular narrative with a citizen-friendly stance.
Third, working closely with like-minded groups in civil society.
The state-level election results in India support these claims [2].
When the leadership, narrative and the civil society favoured the INC in Karnataka (2023) and Telangana (2023), the party surprised the ruling BJP. The Telangana victory of the Congress was modelled after the one in Karnataka.
When, on the other hand, the Congress lacked a clear secular narrative and was ridden with factionalism, it lost the elections that could have yielded substantially different results.
This was evident in Rajasthan (2023), Chhattisgarh (2023), Madhya Pradesh (2023), Haryana (2024) and Maharashtra (2024) [3].
It took the INDIA bloc some time to emerge as a coalition of diverse political parties on the eve of the June 2024 Parliamentary elections.
The autocratisation of the incumbent government seems to have inspired some coherence within a diverse opposition alliance.
The INDIA bloc thus became the rallying point for the forces opposed to majoritarianism and favouring social justice.
Civil society organisations [4] played a significant role, even under adverse conditions.
This political mobilisation restricted the BJP-led NDA to 240 seats in a 545-member lower house of parliament, 32 short of a simple majority in the general election.
The BJP, for the first time since 2014, needed coalition partners to form a government.
This was a favourable result for the political opposition, considering the substantial incumbent advantage of the BJP. The Congress won 99 seats and INDIA bloc