Mainstream, VOL LIII No 48 New Delhi, November 21, 2015
Has Modi’s Magic Waned?
Saturday 21 November 2015, by
Whether or not the Narendra Modi magic has waned or whether the strategy of campai-gning had been faulty, the fact remains that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been routed in Bihar. The BJP is putting up a brave front and feels its loss is because of the Opposition unity.
The Bihar Assembly election results have, nevertheless, delivered a body blow to the BJP, more specifically to the Prime Minister-party President duo of Modi and Amit Shah. The blame-game that began within a couple of hours of the counting continues unabated. The angry voices within the party ranks are growing with every passing day. There will more in the coming days.
As in any post-poll analysis, the Bihar results will be analysed and re-analysed many times. Undoubtedly, this was the most bitterly fought election of all time to come. Never before has an election been based on a divisive politics of communal hate and religious intolerance. Nor have we seen an Assembly poll in which dozens of Central Ministers campaigned and the Prime Minister addressed 30-odd rallies. Party President Shah rooted himself to Bihar for over eight months to devise strategies.
Yet, when the results were declared, it was the Grand Alliance that had the last laugh. The Nitish Kumar-Laloo Prasad Yadav combine along with the Congress, which needed a makeover after continuous drubbing since the 2014 general elections, quietly marched ahead in what was a landslide victory—a vote for social welfare and economic development over all forms of divisive politics of the RSS and BJP.
In the end, as it turned out, the people of Bihar have rejected outright the BJP which rode to power at the Centre in 2014 on the Modi momentum and the so-called Gujarat model. In fact, Delhi was the first one to reject both when the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was voted to power with 67 out of 70 seats. No doubt, the BJP went on to taste successes in a few States like Jharkhand and Haryana and managed to form a coalition government with the People’s Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir. But Bihar was one State that the BJP banked on the most to turn the corner around.
Unfortunately, that was not to be. To my mind, there are several reasons that can be attributed to the BJP loss—polarisation, reservations, cow, et al. Yet for me, it is the reasonably good governance that Nitish Kumar had provided in the last two terms that stands out. Forget the minor aberration called Jitan Ram Manjhi, who ruled the State for a brief period, thanks to Nitish Kumar’s largesse.
In other words, the voters of Bihar wanted continuation of Nitish Kumar, the face of good governance, despite the fact that he had aligned with his once bitter rival Laloo Yadav, the Rashtriya Janata Dal chief. The RJD may have got more seats than the Janata Dal (United) and Laloo Yadav may demand his pound of flesh during the Cabinet formation. I am, however, sure that Nitish will rein him in and not disappoint the people who have reposed the faith in him. I am also hopeful that the Congress, which has a good number in the Assembly, will not overlook what is happening around.
I don’t read too much into what Laloo Yadv had said about Nitish ruling Bihar and he, taking on Modi at the Centre, without any interference in Bihar affairs. I can already hear murmurs that Laloo Yadav’s sons are being tipped to be included as Cabinet Ministers, one of them as the Deputy Chief Minister. This is where Nitish will have to do the real balancing act as the BJP and his NDA rivals, who are waiting for such an opportune moment, to jump in to grab it with both hands.
I don’t want to go into what went wrong with the BJP as there are poll managers of the party to analyse it. But what I can say with authority is that the Bihar example has provided a kind of template for future elections. With three States—Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu—going to the polls next year, the regional parties may look for and forge some alliances on the Bihar model to take on the BJP in each of these States.
No doubt, every State has its own needs and development agenda besides a specific model to work on with local leaders. Only a clever combination like the one between Nitish Kumar and Laloo Yadav, who had correctly felt the pulse of the local voters, can click to the extent it did in Bihar. The pre-poll alliance has to be precise and based on a pure understanding of the local needs.
Coming back to the Modi-Shah leadership model, I am sorry to say that the duo had taken things for granted. Their arrogance, reflected during the campaign, could be one sole reason for the party’s rout. Of course, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat added fuel to fire by raising the issue of reservation. Even the BJP leadership in Bihar has come out with statements that point out how the party went overboard on certain issues and seems to underline that the remarks of the RSS chief did not go well with the Biharis.
It appears that Modi has lost his way and does not know how to overcome the deficiencies of bureaucracy, something which his prede-cessors had faced. Economic reforms announced by the party takes the country to the Right unashamedly. Even if Jawaharlal Nehru’s socia-listic pattern is unacceptable to it, the BJP cannot give the impression of being pro-rich and pro-corporate because in a country where most people are poor, it has to move away from the Rightist policy.
I am not suggesting that the party follows the Preamble of the Constitution word by word. But it cannot take a line which is entirely opposite to the spirit of the Constitution: the governance which is opposed to taking any step to rectify the distance which is increasing day by day between the haves and have-nots. The sooner Modi and his party realise this, the better would it be for them.
The author is a veteran journalist renowned not only in this country but also in our neighbouring states of Pakistan and Bangladesh where his columns are widely read. His website is www.kuldipnayar.com