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Mainstream, VOL 62 No 22, June 1, 2024

UP politics is taking new turn like 1977 | Barik, Malik & Maurya

Saturday 1 June 2024, by Radhakanta Barik


by Prof Radhakanta Barik, Prof Malik from Meerut and Dasharathi Maurya a political activist from the Eastern UP.

UP is the fourth largest state comparable to the size of United kingdom. It plays key role in the political mapping of the Indian Republic. With its eighty parliamentary seats and for the BJP it is the important state as the party got sixty seats in the last general election. In their planning of getting 400 seats in 2024 general election UP works as pivotal role. There are seven phases of voting which UP goes for each phase of election. The last phase of voting is going to be held on 1 June when the Poorvanchal is going to face the election with 13 seats where Gorakhapur from where the chief minister of UP Shri Yogi comes and Banaras from where the Prime Minister Modi gets elected. It is going to play pivotal role in their political design.

The poorvanachal is being controlled by Modi who in his speech told that he want to develop the region in the coming five years if you vote. People have voted him in 2019 but no development in the region including his own constituency Banaras and they are furious at Modi and they have decided to vote against Modi and the BJP. Last time they own all the seats and today they may win only one. It is an interesting development. Political wind is turning into a cyclone which is washing away the castles built by Hindutva on the sand of Ganga without any foundation. Religion cannot be the only source of nourishment for poor people they demand bread job and income and development in their area. They look at Rahul Gandhi as their leader and it is interesting voting for the INDIA alliance and it is voting for Rahul as they claim.

The issue of leadership of Yadav and Gandhi creates an electrifying impact on the youths of UP. They are unemployed and the Yogi government held three tests and but the question papers got leaked and they could not appear the examination. Every youth lost so much money and they were not paid back. They used to prepare in group by taking a room on rent in Allahabad, Lucknow, Banaras and Agra. But got disappointed by knowing the lakhs of posts are vacant. They agitated. The Congress Party’s manifesto talks of holding test within six months of coming to power. Youths are everywhere who are going to the mass meeting held by Yadav and Gandhi. These young leaders are creating mesmerizing impact on youths of UP. Yogi and Modi do not talk of unemployment or so many jobs are vacant. They talk of Ram Mandir which do not attract the youths of UP.

UP is bringing 1977 moment in politics and this election is going to be a disaster for the BJP. Issues of peasantry affecting them badly in Western UP for which they may lose all seats. They brought living Ram in the place of Lord Ram to Meerut which is failing and he felt so disturbed that he fled away to Bombay. He played in the serial Ramayan which brought Hindu consciousness in support of Ram mandir politic. Anger of peasantry is affecting Choudhuri Charan Singh’s grand son so badly that he may lose his seat this time. The story is there that they bringing the old issues like fuel wood and burnt already and once more bringing to election this time. They have no issues as the party is getting tired and exhausted one. The leadership of the BJP looks tired and Modi suffers from fatigue.

Both Modi and Yogi never used class factor in political design for UP. Specifically both working class and peasantry both are absent in their speeches. They speak against Muslims and Kashmir etc but forget to talk about peasantry and working class. The cities like Noida and Gaziabad both are dominated by working class and Kanpur is also dominated by working class . As both these leaders never spoke about their problems while holding meetings. This resulted in alienation of working class and it looks like these cities might go against the BJP. The same way they ignored the peasantry and they are angry in Western UP and stood with the peasantry of Punjab and Haryana, All over Western UP it looked like the BJP is losing all seats from Saharanpur to Meerut. Although peasantry of whole UP in eighty districts are concerned about their material problems and their gentle anger is there.

Modi and Yogi went for an artificial arrangement in 2019 by bringing the upper castes and lower OBC together. This arrangement carefully crafted that most important powers were being kept by the upper caste people and peripheral posts with the lower OBC. This arrangement created support base for the ruling BJP in UP. But disgruntled OBC leaders left the arrangement and went back to Indian alliance. A dominant community within lower OBC is Mauryas who joined the Yadavs and Muslims . This created viable political block to confront the high castes of Modi and Yogi. This created disenchantment with the lower OBC who joined hands with the Samajbadi Party of Yadav.

Yadav and Rahul Gandhi are friends worked together and created tremors in politics of UP. The 2024 election turns into a battle ground where the Upper castes at one side and the other backwards and Muslims the other end. Battle lines clearly worked out in each area with local variations. This is what working in UP to upset the apple cart of Modi and Yogi.

How Modi and Yogi are losing UP? They had a political design that Ram Mandir can create a wave for them. They will get four hundred seats. All these slogans are without any basis. They lack geographical knowledge of UP. It is the space between river Yamuna to Ganga it is fertile land with political imagination to confront Modi and Yogi. Here people are intelligent and imaginative. They played a decisive role in national movement. They opposed the partition. They opposed the Idea of Pakistan despite it has a substantive percentage of Muslim population. Hindu and Muslims have a close bond. Riots get organised by the communal forces led by the BJP. But people belonging to both the communities come forward to help each other. Modi and Yogi went against them. They brought the concept of bulldozer justice. Justice is not based on rule of Law and it cannot violate the law of land. Modi and Yogi with the police forces went against the history of communal harmony. This made them blind folded. This may be the critical factor for losing the UP from their political accounting of the 2024 general election.

People of UP and Bihar are expecting that now Modi would start crying. His dramatic style got started in Banaras . His political drama everyone understands but people are careful this time.

In 5th round voting it looks like the BJP is losing most of seats from UP and Maharashtra. It seems that Modi and Shah are now looking for places to shed tears either in Himalaya or Ahmadabad. There is hint given by the chief minister of Bihar that he wished Modi to be the chief minister of Gujarat once more. There is no alternative to them. Delhi may not provide space for them. They can go to Nagpur but the RSS has already announced that their doors are closed for them. It is extremely interesting phase in the voting for 2024 general election.

The way crowd is behaving in UP where the Phulpur public meeting is the proof and that they reached the meeting place to listen to Rahul Gandhi and Yadav where such a massive crowd as unexpected, the meeting got cancelled. It looks like not the mob politics of Hindutva raj with the backing of the police where anarchy got created. During Advani’s rathyatra or Modi campaign for cow politics where he questioned beef and fish and meat which created riots against the Muslims and bulldozer justice. Here crowd is oriented towards the change in the system where the present ruling party under Modi should go. This explains the actions of crowd in UP and Bihar. Their silence is explosive.

Historians working on Nehru find the importance of Motilal Nehru in building a such towering personality. The best education in England and his association with the Fabians of England and getting influenced by Soviet Russia and shaped his socialist consciousness and reconstructing Indian Republic as a secular socialist one. Two young leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi who are fighting the biggest battle against fascism have been gifted by their mother Sonia Gandhi. She went to Raibareli and told it in her words: Rahul is my gift to you which is a beautiful sentence from a mother. Let the fascists fall down and then we can discuss it in a more meaningful way. This space has been shaped as political space of the Congress Party under the leadership of Gandhi’s family.

Modi and Jinnah had parallel politics. Once Jinnah became the leader of Muslim league he came back from Bombay to UP and he put toe in UP by reaching ALigarh University and he mobilised the landlords of UP to join the Muslim League. Modi came to UP from Gujarat which was a part of Bombay presidency at one time when Jinnah was doing politics. Two Gujaratis had different track records One created Pakistan and another by coming to UP want to create Hindurastra. For which he is demanding four hundred which is a political design to create Hindu rastra like Muslim Pakistan. Jinnah could not full fill his dream of bigger Pakistan where UP to Bengal would be there. Here he got satisfied with Pakistan. Modi wanted to carve out North India for his Hindurastra politics. For which he needs to compare with South: Sanatani vs reformist Hinduism. But youths of North are rebelling against his diabolical political design.

2024 general election is going to be a milestone in political development of Indian Republic. There is an alliance which is having an image before the public. They have given alternative problematic understanding of programme. It brings multiple voices together: unemployment, poverty, inequality, social justice and development all these highly inclusive one. The BJP under Modi facing the waterloo in the coming election. All readings of the election show that the BJP is going to lose the general election. Their slogan of Hindutva Ram Mandir to anti Muslims jargon and four hundred members in parliament to Hindurastra have created light at the end of tunnel. People specifically young are assertive today and they wanted to take a stand against the politics of Modi and BJP. If the INDIA alliance works with a proper planning there is every possibility that the BJP may go back to 1984 position when they had four members with poetry of Vajpayee.

Politics in India is changing its colour from saffron to tri coloured national flag. UP is the key to their store house of four hundred seats where UP need to give eighty seats is not going to work out. It is going against them. They won in 2019 general election sixty seats and it looks like the INDIA alliance may get sixty seats this time to prick the political balloon

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